- * The world population is growing by approximately 74 million people per year
- * Population growth is not evenly distributed across the globe
- * Scientists are yet to conclusively determine the human ‘carrying capacity’ of Earth
- * Population is only one of many factors influencing the environment
- * We have consumed more resources in the last 50 years than the whole of humanity before us
- * The 20th century saw the biggest increase in the world’s population in human history.
- In 2015 the world population is more than 7.3 billion people. That’s more than seven billion three hundred million bodies that need to be fed, clothed, kept warm and ideally, nurtured and educated. More than 7.3 billion individuals who, while busy consuming resources, are also producing vast quantities of waste, and our numbers continue to grow. The United Nations estimates that the world population will reach 9.2 billion by 2050.
Population size
It's no surprise that as the world population continues to grow, the limits of essential global resources such as potable water, fertile land, forests and fisheries are becoming more obvious. You don’t have to be a maths whizz to work out that, on the whole, more people use more resources and create more waste.
But how many people is too many? How many of us can Earth realistically support?
Influenced by the work of Thomas Malthus, 'carrying capacity' can be defined as the maximum population size an environment can sustain indefinitely.
Debate about the actual human carrying capacity of Earth dates back hundreds of years. The range of estimates is enormous, fluctuating from 500 million people to more than one trillion. Scientists disagree not only on the final number, but more importantly about the best and most accurate way of determining that number—hence the huge variability.
Population distribution
The ways in which populations are spread across Earth has an effect on the environment. Developing countries tend to have higher birth rates due to poverty and lower access to family planning and education, while developed countries have lower birth rates. In 2015, 80 per cent of the world’s population live in less-developed nations. These faster-growing populations can add pressure to local environments.
Globally, in almost every country, humans are also becoming more urbanised. In 1960 less than one third of the world’s population lived in cities. By 2014, that figure was 54 per cent, with a projected rise to 66 per cent by 2050.
Population composition
The composition of a population can also affect the surrounding environment. At present, the global population has both the largest proportion of young people (under 24) and the largest percentage of elderly people in history. As young people are more likely to migrate, this leads to intensified urban environmental concerns, as listed above.
Life expectancy has increased by approximately 20 years since 1960. While this is a triumph for mankind, and certainly a good thing for the individual, from the planet's point of view it is just another body that is continuing to consume resources and produce waste for around 40 per cent longer than in the past.
Population consumption
While poverty and environmental degradation are closely interrelated, it is the unsustainable patterns of consumption and production, primarily in developed nations, that are of even greater concern.
It’s not often that those in developed countries stop and consider our own levels of consumption. For many, particularly in industrialised countries, the consumption of goods and resources is just a part of our lives and culture, promoted not only by advertisers but also by governments wanting to continually grow their economy. Culturally, it is considered a normal part of life to shop, buy and consume, to continually strive to own a bigger home or a faster car, all frequently promoted as signs of success. It may be fine to participate in consumer culture and to value material possessions, but in excess it is harming both the planet and our emotional wellbeing.
What is the solution?
How do we solve the delicate problem of population growth and environmental limitations? Joel Cohen, a mathematician and author characterised potential solutions in the following way:
1. A BIGGER PIE: TECHNICAL INNOVATION
This theory looks to innovation and technology as Earth’s saviour, not only to extend the planet’s human carrying capacity, but to also improve the quality of life for each individual. Advances in food production technologies such as agriculture, water purification and genetic engineering may help to feed the masses, while moving away from fossil fuels to renewable power sources such as wind and solar will go some way to reducing climate change.
2. FEWER FORKS: EDUCATION AND POLICY CHANGE
This theory is based on demographic transition, effectively finding ways to slow or stop population growth resulting in fewer people fighting for resources or ‘slices’ of pie.
Birth rates naturally decline when populations are given access to sexual and reproductive healthcare, education for boys and girls beyond the primary level is encouraged and made available, and women are empowered to participate in social and political life. Continuing to support programs and policies in these areas should see a corresponding drop in birth rates. Similarly, as the incomes of individuals in developing countries increase, there is a corresponding decrease in birth rates. This is another incentive for richer countries to help their poorer neighbours reach their development potential.
3. BETTER MANNERS: LESS IS MORE
The better manners approach seeks to educate people about their actions and the consequences of those actions, leading to a change in behaviour. This relates not only to individuals but also governments. Individuals across the world, but particularly in developed countries, need to reassess their consumption patterns. Numerous studies have shown that more ‘stuff’ doesn't make people happier anyway. We need to step back and re-examine what is important and actively find ways to reduce the amount of resources we consume. Taking shorter showers, saying no to single-use plastics, buying less, recycling our waste and reviewing our mode and frequency of travel may seem trivial, but if millions around the world begin to do it as well, the difference will begin to add up.
Where to from here?
Population is an issue that cannot be ignored. While we can all do our bit to reduce our own global footprint, the combined impact of billions of other footprints will continue to add up. There are many who believe that if we do not find ways of limiting the numbers of people on Earth ourselves, then Earth itself will eventually find ways of doing it for us.
Interestingly, despite population increase being such a serious issue, the United Nations has held only three world conferences on population and development (in 1945, 1974 and 1994).
However, governments around the world are beginning to recognise the seriousness and importance of the situation, and are taking steps to reduce the environmental impacts of increasing populations and consumption such as through pollution reduction targets for air, soil and water pollutants. The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, scheduled for December 2015, is one example; however any international policies need to be backed up by workable solutions at the individual, local and regional level.
Conclusion
With more than 7.3 billion people on the planet, it’s easy to assume someone else will tackle and solve the issue of population and environment. Yet it is an issue that affects us all, and as such we’re all responsible for working towards a sustainable future in which everyone is able to enjoy a good quality of life without destroying the very things we rely on to survive. It’s possible, but it will take the combined and coordinated efforts of individuals, communities, and governments to get there.
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